Fractionally integrated processes have become a standard class of models to describe the long memory features of economic and financial time series data. However, it has been demonstrated in numerous studies that structural break processes and non-linear features can often be confused as being...

Empirical evidence from time series methods which assume the usual I(0)/I(1) paradigm suggests that the efficient market hypothesis, stating that spot and futures prices of a commodity should cointegrate with a unit slope on futures prices, does not hold. However, these statistical methods are...

This paper estimates the long memory volatility model for 16 agricultural commodity futures returns from different futures markets, namely corn, oats, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, wheat, live cattle, cattle feeder, pork, cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, Kansas City wheat, rubber, and...

Time series data affect many aspects of our lives. This paper highlights ten things we should all know about time series, namely: a good working knowledge of econometrics and statistics, an awareness of measurement errors, testing for zero frequency, seasonal and periodic unit roots, analysing...

This paper proves consistency and asymptotic normality for the conditional-sum-of-squares estimator, which is equivalent to the conditional maximum likelihood estimator, in multivariate fractional time series models. The model is parametric and quite general, and, in particular, encompasses the...

This paper extends the local polynomial Whittle estimator of Andrews & Sun (2004) to fractionally integrated processes covering stationary and non-stationary regions. We utilize the notion of the extended discrete Fourier transform and periodogram to extend the local polynomial Whittle estimator...

We discuss specification, frequency domain estimation and application of flexible fractionally integrated seasonal long memory time series models, which allow for 'chi-squared' (seasonal) unit root testing. We suggest periodogram regression and approximate ML estimation. We successfully apply a...

-Theory- Two theories about trends in left-right political orientations are juxtaposed: the persistence theory claiming that left-right orientations are highly resistant to change versus the irrelevance theory anticipating a move of mass publics towards the center of the left-right continuum....

This paper derives a semiparametric estimator of multivariate fractionally integrated processes covering both stationary and non-stationary values of d. We utilize the notion of the extended discrete Fourier transform and periodogram to extend the multivariate local Whittle estimator of Shimotsu...

A regime dependent VAR model is suggested that allows long memory (fractional integration) in each of the regime states as well as the possibility of fractional cointegra- tion. The model is relevant in describing the price dynamics of electricity prices where the transmission of power is...