Trends and cyclical components in economic time series are modeled in a Bayesian framework. This enables prior notions about the duration of cycles to be used, while the generalized class of stochastic cycles employed allows the possibility of relatively smooth cycles being extracted. The...

Cyclical components in economic time series are analysed in a Bayesian framework, thereby allowing prior notions about periodicity to be used. The method is based on a general class of unobserved component models that encompasses a range of dynamics in the stochastic cycle. This allows for...