The network pattern of financial linkages is important in many areas of banking and finance. Yet bilateral linkages are often unobserved, and maximum entropy serves as the leading method for estimating counterparty exposures. This paper proposes an efficient alternative that combines...

An examination of whether one should seasonally adjust data before developing multivariate time series models to provide forecasts.

An argument that variations of extant general-equilibrium monetary models can generate real-time economic forecasts comparable in accuracy to those contained in the Federal Reserve Board's "Greenbook" briefing documents.

The premise of this study is that the regional economist can better understand the Ohio economy by studying the properties of important Ohio time series that can be identified and quantified through simple regression methods.

This paper explores the hypothesis that the sources of economic and financial crises differ from noncrisis business cycle fluctuations. We employ Markov-switching Bayesian vector autoregressions (MS-BVARs) to gather evidence about the hypothesis on a long annual U.S. sample running from 1890 to...