Monetary policy VARs typically presume stability of the long-run outcomes. We introduce the possibility of switches in the long-run equilibrium in a cointegrated VAR by allowing both the covariance matrix and weighting matrix in the error-correction term to switch. We find that monetary policy...

Monetary policy has significant but overlooked effects on entry and exit of firms. We study optimal monetary stabilization policy in a DSGE model with microfounded money demand and endogenous firm entry. Due to a congestion externality affecting firm entry, the optimal policy deviates from the...

We construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to study optimal monetary stabilization policy. Prices are fully flexible and money is essential for trade. Our main result is that if the central bank pursues a price-level target, it can control inflation expectations and improve...

I use the monetary version of the neoclassical growth model developed by Aruoba, Waller and Wright (2008) to study the properties of the model when there is exogenous growth. I first consider the planner's problem, then the equilibrium outcome in a monetary economy. I do so by first using...

In this paper we provide international evidence on the issue of whether the optimizing IS equation is more stable than a backward-looking alternative. The international evidence consist of estimates of IS equations on quarterly data for the UK and Australia, both for the full sample of the last...

We use a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to address two questions about U.S. monetary policy: 1) Can monetary policy elevate output when it is below potential? and 2) Is the zero lower bound a trap? The model answer to the first question is yes it can, but the effect is only...

With rare exception, studies of monetary policy tend to neglect the timing of the innovations to the monetary policy instrument. Models which do take timing seriously are often difficult to compare to standard VAR models of monetary policy because of the differences in the frequency that they...

A number of studies have documented a reduction in aggregate macroeconomic volatility beginning in the early 1980s. Using an empirical model of business cycles, we extend this line of research to state-level employment data and find significant heterogeneity in the timing and magnitude of the...

A general-equilibrium shopping-time model of money demand is used to obtain estimates of some dynamic costs of inflation under alternative monetary policy rules. After examining the welfare implications of steady-state inflation, dynamic welfare costs are evaluated for inflation-targeting and...

This paper argues that inferring long-horizon asset-return predictability from the properties of vector autoregressive (VAR) models on relatively short spans of data is potentially unreliable. We illustrate the problems that can arise by re-examining the findings of Bekaert and Hodrick (1992),...