subset of variables common to the larger sets of variables included in the competing forecasting models. We consider an out … comparing the predictive content of credit spreads to growth in real stock prices for forecasting U.S. real GDP growth. …

for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money …, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment … forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non …

-of-sample forecasting gains, which are concentrated in U.S. business-cycle recessions. Nevertheless, economic variables and moving …-of-sample forecasting gains in the actual data evidenced by economic variables and moving-average rules. …