In this paper we study whether policy makers should wait to intervene until a financial crisis strikes or rather act in a preemptive manner. We study this question in a relatively simple dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which crises are endogenous events induced by the presence of...

We adopt a statistical approach to identify the shocks that explain most of the fluctuations of the slope of the term structure of interest rates. We find that one single shock can explain the majority of all unpredictable movements in the slope over a 10-year forecast horizon. Impulse response...

In 2005, bankruptcy laws were reformed significantly, making personal bankruptcy substantially more costly to file than before. Shortly after, the US began to experience its most severe recession in seventy years. While personal bankruptcy rates rose, they rose only modestly given the severity...

The two channels of default on unsecured consumer debt are (i) bankruptcy, which legally grants partial or complete removal of unsecured debt under certain circumstances, and (ii) delinquency, which is informal default via nonpayment. In the United States, both channels are used routinely. This...

The American European Community Association, Brussels, Belgium, April 16, 2007

Presentation to the Missouri Bankers Association Senior Bank Management Conference, Acapulco, Mexico - Jan. 15, 2001

Global Interdependence Center, Annual Black Tie Gala in Celebration of Greece, Philadelphia, Penn., July 25, 2007

Remarks prepared for 16th Annual Monetary Conference, Cato Institute, Washington, D.C. - Oct. 22, 1998

Presentation at the University of Missouri-Columbia - Nov. 4, 1999

European Economics & Financial Centre Conference, London, Sept. 6, 2007