This paper investigates whether the degree and the nature of economic and monetary policy interdependence between the United States and the euro area have changed with the advent of EMU. Using real-time data, it addresses this issue from the perspective of financial markets by analysing the...

This paper develops a new Early Warning System (EWS) model for predicting financial crises, based on a multinomial logit model. It is shown that EWS approaches based on binomial discrete-dependent-variable models can be subject to what we call a post-crisis bias. This bias arises when no...

The separation of security and economic objectives in foreign policy, which was often sought in international political issues in the past, has outlived its usefulness. The transition to a more power-based order can be felt around the world. International economic instruments and agreements are...