Monetary policy is modeled as governed by a known rule, except for a time-varying target rate of inflation. The variable target is taken as representing either discretionary deviations from the rule, or as the outcome of a policymaking committee that is unable to arrive at a consensus....

a speech at the The Brimmer Policy Forum, Allied Social Science Associations Annual Meeting, Denver, Colorado, January 8, 2011

a speech at the Committee for Economic Development 2010 International Counterparts Conference, New York, New York, December 1, 2010

In a two-country DSGE model, the effects of foreign demand shocks on the home country are greatly amplified if the home economy is constrained by the zero lower bound for policy interest rates. This result applies even to countries that are relatively closed to trade such as the United States....

a speech at the Annual Meeting of the National Association for Business Economics, Denver, Colorado, October 11, 2010

Remarks at the National Association of Business Economists, Washington, DC, March 13, 1996

remarks at the Economic Club of New York, New York, New York, April 11, 2011

a speech at the Banque de France International Symposium, Paris, France, March 4, 2011

When the nominal interest rate reaches its zero lower bound, credibility is crucial for conducting forward guidance. We determine optimal policy in a New Keynesian model when the central bank has imperfect credibility and cannot set the nominal interest rate below zero. In our model, an...

I study 46 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro model used by Federal Reserve Board staff for forecasting and policy analysis, as measures of real-time model uncertainty. I also study the implications of model uncertainty for the robustness of commonly applied, simple monetary policy rules. I...