Monetary policy is modeled as governed by a known rule, except for a time-varying target rate of inflation. The variable target is taken as representing either discretionary deviations from the rule, or as the outcome of a policymaking committee that is unable to arrive at a consensus....

a speech at the The Brimmer Policy Forum, Allied Social Science Associations Annual Meeting, Denver, Colorado, January 8, 2011

a speech at the Committee for Economic Development 2010 International Counterparts Conference, New York, New York, December 1, 2010

This paper provides an introduction to the practice of forecasting "exogenous" components of federal government taxes and spending-policy actions, for short--in the United States. First, we estimate simple models of defense expenditures that are useful for constructing current-quarter forecasts...

a speech at the Annual Meeting of the National Association for Business Economics, Denver, Colorado, October 11, 2010

Remarks at the National Association of Business Economists, Washington, DC, March 13, 1996