Monetary policy is modeled as governed by a known rule, except for a time-varying target rate of inflation. The variable target is taken as representing either discretionary deviations from the rule, or as the outcome of a policymaking committee that is unable to arrive at a consensus....

We find evidence that the law of one price (LOOP) holds more nearly for country pairs that are within geographic regions than for country pairs that are not. These findings are established using consumer price data from 23 countries (including data from eight North American cities.) We find that...

a speech at the The Brimmer Policy Forum, Allied Social Science Associations Annual Meeting, Denver, Colorado, January 8, 2011

This paper describes the structure and illustrates the key features of FRB/Global, a large-scale macroeconomic model used in analyzing exogenous shocks and alternative policy responses in foreign economies and in examining the impact of these external shocks on the U.S. economy. FRB/Global...

a speech at the Committee for Economic Development 2010 International Counterparts Conference, New York, New York, December 1, 2010

a speech at the Annual Meeting of the National Association for Business Economics, Denver, Colorado, October 11, 2010

Remarks at the National Association of Business Economists, Washington, DC, March 13, 1996

remarks at the Economic Club of New York, New York, New York, April 11, 2011

a speech at the Banque de France International Symposium, Paris, France, March 4, 2011

I study 46 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro model used by Federal Reserve Board staff for forecasting and policy analysis, as measures of real-time model uncertainty. I also study the implications of model uncertainty for the robustness of commonly applied, simple monetary policy rules. I...