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Spending and Job-Finding Impacts of Expanded Unemployment Benefits : Evidence from Administrative Micro Data
Ganong, Peter; Greig, Fiona E.; Noel, Pascal J.; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
We show that the largest increase in unemployment benefits in U.S. history had large spending impacts and small job-finding impacts. This finding has three implications. First, increased benefits were important for explaining aggregate spending dynamics--but not employment dynamics--during the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013361970
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Trading Places : Mobility Responses of Native and Foreign-Born Adults to the China Trade Shock
Autor, David H.; Dorn, David; Hanson, Gordon H. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
Previous research finds that the greater geographic mobility of foreign than native-born workers following economic shocks helps to facilitate local labor market adjustment to shifting regional economic conditions. We examine the role that immigration may have played in enabling U.S. commuting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013537796
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Where Have All the Workers Gone? Recalls, Retirements, and Reallocation in the COVID Recovery
Forsythe, Eliza; Kahn, Lisa B.; Lange, Fabian; Wiczer, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
At the onset of the COVID pandemic, the U.S. economy suddenly and swiftly lost 20 million jobs. Over the next two years, the economy has been on the recovery path. We assess the labor market two years into the COVID crisis. We show that early employment dynamics were almost entirely driven by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362041
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State-Dependent Local Projections : Understanding Impulse Response Heterogeneity
Cloyne, James; Jordà, Òscar; Taylor, Alan M. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
An impulse response is the dynamic average effect of an intervention across horizons. We use the well-known Kitagawa-Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition to explore a response's heterogeneity over time and over states of the economy. This can be implemented with a simple extension to the usual local...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014226168
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The Impact of Unions on Wages in the Public Sector : Evidence from Higher Education
Baker, Michael; Halberstam, Yosh; Kroft, Kory; Mas, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
in the bottom half of the wage distribution with little evidence of any impact at the top end. Our evidence indicates … that the wage effects are primarily concentrated in the first half of our sample period. We do not find any evidence of an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512131
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Evaluating the Economic Significance of Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity
Elsby, Michael W. - 2006
This paper formalizes and assesses empirically the implications of widely observed evidence for downward nominal wage … rigidity (DNWR). It shows how a model of DNWR informed by diverse evidence for worker resistance to nominal wage cuts is … nevertheless consistent with weak macroeconomic effects. This occurs because firms have an incentive to compress wage increases as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466050
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Scenarios for the Transition to AGI
Korinek, Anton; Suh, Donghyun - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We analyze how output and wages behave under different scenarios for technological progress that may culminate in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), defined as the ability of AI systems to perform all tasks that humans can perform. We assume that human work can be decomposed into atomistic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512109
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Not in My Backyard? The Local Impact of Wind and Solar Parks in Brazil
Scheifele, Fabian; Popp, David - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
Support from local citizens is important for the scale-up of renewable energy. We investigate the impact of utility-scale wind and solar parks on employment, GDP and public finances in Brazilian municipalities using a difference-in-differences design with matching. We find a positive employment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512128
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Shaping Inequality and Intergenerational Persistence of Poverty : Free College or Better Schools
Krueger, Dirk; Ludwig, Alexander; Popova, Irina - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We evaluate the aggregate, distributional and welfare consequences of alternative government education policies to encourage college completion, such as making college free and improving funding for public schooling. To do so, we construct a general equilibrium overlapping generations model with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544745
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The Simple Macroeconomics of AI
Acemoglu, Daron - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
TFP gains over the next 10 years are even more modest and are predicted to be less than 0.53%. I also explore AI's wage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544765