This paper addresses the question of whether public information destabilises the economy in the context of signals of different nature. We present an experimental evaluation of the speculative attack game of Morris and Shin (1998). Our objective is twofold: to evaluate whether public information...

This article explores the main determinants of the hazard of recidivism among ex-prisoners. We use a nationally-representative sample of prisoners released in 1996-1997 in France, drawn from a 5-year follow-up survey run by the French correctional administration. We estimate semiparametric...

This paper examines the role of education and family background on age at marriage, age at first birth, and age at labor market entry for young women in Senegal using a rich individual-level survey conducted in 2003. We use a multiple-equation framework that allows us to account for the...

Using methods from machine learning - adaptive sequential ridge regression with discount factors - that prevent overfitting in-sample for better and more stable forecasting performance out-of-sample we show that fundamentals from the PPP, UIRP and monetary models consistently improve the...

In this paper, we investigate the impact of monetary policy signals stemming from the ECB Council and the FOMC on the intradaily Euro-dollar volatility, using high-frequency data (five minutes frequency). For that, we estimate an AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model, which integrates a polynomials structure...

With the emergence of the chaos theory and the method of surrogates data, nonlinear approaches employed in analysing time series typically suffer from high computational complexity and lack of straightforward explanation. Therefore, the need for methods capable of characterizing time series in...

Most of the international asset pricing models are developed in the situation where purchasing power parity (PPP) is not respected. Investors of different countries do not agree on expected security returns. However, in this case, an equilibrium on the international assets market may exist but...

This paper relaxes a fundamental hypothesis commonly accepted in the expectation formation literature: expectations are, unchangingly, either rational or generated by one of the three simple extrapolative, regressive or adaptive processes. Using expectations survey data provided by Consensus...

This paper examines the relationships between the CAC40 index, the Dow Jones index and the Euro/USD exchange rate using daily data over the period 1999-2008. We find that these variables are I(1) nonstationary series, but they are fractionally cointegrated: equilibrium errors exhibit slow mean...