This paper presents a quarterly macro econometric model of the Kazakhstan. The main goal is to provide a stylized representation of the Kazakh economy in order to simulate the consequences of several economic policies viewed by the authorities as essential during the period of transition to a...

This paper provides evidence that the European Central Bank (ECB) has adjusted its interest rate since 1999 nonlinearly according to the macroeconomic and financial environment in the euro zone. Its policy function is described by a Taylor rule with regime shifts implying that the stance of...

This paper attempts to provide evidence of "shift-volatility" transmission in the East Asian equity markets. By shift-volatility, we mean the volatility shifts from a low level to a high level, corresponding respectively to tranquil and crisis periods. We examine the interdependence of equity...

This paper attempts to analyze the relationships between the ASEAN-5 countries' business cycles. We examine the nature of business cycles correlation trying to disentangle between regional spillover effects (expansion and recession phases among the ASEAN-5 are correlated) and global spillovers...

This paper presents a 2-regime SETAR model with a long-memory process in the first regime and a short-memory process in the second regime. We briefly introduce the properties of this model and methods for locating the threshold parameter are proposed. Such a process is applied to stock indices...

We propose a measure of the probability of crises associated with an aggregate indicator, where the percentage of false alarms and the proportion of missed signals can be combined to give an appreciation of the vulnerability of an economy. In this perspective, the important issue is not only to...

This paper presents a small macroeconomic model of Kazakhstan to study the impact of various economic policies. The simulations provide insight into the role of a tight monetary policy, higher foreign direct investment, rises in nominal wages and in crude oil prices. The results obtained are in...

We propose a measure of the probability of crises associated with an aggregate indicator, where the percentage of false alarms and the proportion of missed signals can be combined to give an appreciation of the vulnerability of an economy. In this perspective, the important issue is not only to...

This paper presents a 2-regime SETAR model for the volatility with a long-memory process in the first regime and a short-memory process in the second regime. Persistence properties are studied and estimation methods are proposed. Such a process is applied to stock indices and individual asset...

This paper generalizes the standard long memory modeling by assuming that the long memory parameter d is stochastic and time varying: we introduce a STAR process on this parameter characterized by a logistic function. We propose an estimation method of this model. Some simulation experiments are...