Is the big push hypothesis consistent with capacity constraints in the study of aid effectiveness? Big push hypothesis suggests the existence of a minimum threshold below which aid is not effective, while the constraints referred to by the concept of absorptive capacity suggests the existence of...

Universal Primary Education (UPE) is one of the main objectives of development aid. However, very little empirical evidence of its effectiveness actually exists. Until very recently, the quality of available data was not sufficient to obtain robust results regarding the relationship between...

Deforestation is a phenomenon that has largely been concentrated in the developing world. We construct a theoretical model of deforestation that focuses on the factors affecting the incentives to transform forested land into agricultural land. We show that: (i) lower discount rates and stronger...

Macro vulnerability of the poor countries, an increasing concern of the international community, is analyzed as the risk that their development be hampered by the shocks they face, natural or external. Structural vulnerability mainly results from the size of the shocks and the exposure to the...

While after a long stagnation growth seems to have come back in Africa, the issue remains to know whether the new African growth is sustainable. This paper examines to what extent African growth is vulnerable to exogeneous shocks and what are the implications for international development...

The aim of the note is, following the previous work of the Committee for Development Policy (CDP) (United Nations 1999, 2000, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006) as well as my related papers and my forthcoming book on the Least Developped Countries (LDCs) (Guillaumont, 2004a, 2004b, 2006, 2007a, 2007b), to...

This paper assesses the effect of economic instability on the success of the projects funded by the World Bank, using the outcome of the projects, which is a notation of their overall success determined by the Independent Evaluation Group. It has been argued in macro economic studies that aid...

In previous papers we have argued that aid is likely to mitigate the negative effects of external shocks on economic growth (i.e. that aid is more effective in countries which are more vulnerable to external shocks). Recently an important debate has emerged about the possible negative effects of...

The recent literature on the determinants of poverty changes across countries has been focused on the change of average level of income per capita and its distribution, generally measured by a Gini coefficient. While the instability of income is more and more considered as an explaining factor...

We examine whether absorptive capacity represents a valid reason to reject the proposal of a large aid increase in order to help poor countries to move out of the underdevelopment trap. We consider absorptive capacity, the set of limits to an effective use of aid inflows, under for main aspects:...