This paper presents a fully rational general equilibrium model that produces a time-varying exchange rate risk premium and solves the uncovered interest rate parity (U.I.P) puzzle. In this two-country model, agents are characterized by slow-moving external habit preferences similar to Campbell &...

We propose a new semiparametric procedure for estimating multivariate models with conditioning variables. The semiparametric model is based on the parametric conditional copula and nonparametric conditional marginals. To avoid the curse of dimensionality in the estimation of the latter, we...

Emerging market financial crises are abrupt and dramatic, usually occurring after a period of high output growth, massive capital flows, and a boom in asset markets. This paper develops an equilibrium asset pricing model with informational frictions in which vulnerability and the crisis itself...

Paper presents various dynamic FX rate simulation models based upon time-dependent market clearing conditions. Discussed nonlinear models follow classical concept of computer agent interactions between chartists and fundamentalists. Within each trading period agents select proper trading rules...

We present a multi-stage stochastic programming model for managing portfolios of stock and bond indices denominated in multiple currencies. The portfolios are exposed to market risks and currency risks. Uncertainty in asset returns and exchange rates is represented by means of discrete...

This paper investigates whether insiders use private information in their decision to exercise executive stock options. Consistent with existing research, exercises overall do not yield subsequent abnormal returns. Categorising exercises by the proportion of stock sold at exercise yields a...

Using monthly data from 1926:01 to 2003:12 for the United States, this paper examines the predictability of real stock prices based on the dividend-price ratio. In particular, we focus on estimating and forecasting a nonlinear exponential smooth autoregressive model (ESTAR). One motivation for...

In this paper, we apply a GARCH model to examine the cross-autocorrelation pattern between daily returns of portfolios composed of dual-listed stocks in Chinese stock market, before and after China opened its once foreign-exclusive B-share market. A lead-lag relationship between the A-share and...

The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is one of the most investigated questions in Finance. Nevertheless, it is still a puzzle, despite the enormous amount of research it has provoked. For instance, it is still discussed that market cannot be outperformed in the long run (Detry and Gregoire,...

In this paper we explore ways that alleviate problems of nonparametric (artificial neural networks) and parametric option pricing models by combining the two. The resulting enhanced network model is compared to standard artificial neural networks and to parametric models with several historical...