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Nowcasting Business Cycles Using Toll Data

Askitas, Nikos; Zimmermann, Klaus F. - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2011

Nowcasting has been a challenge in the recent economic crisis. We introduce the Toll Index, a new monthly indicator for business cycle forecasting and demonstrate its relevance using German data. The index measures the monthly transportation activity performed by heavy transport vehicles across...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008854242

The Evolution of Inflation and Unemployment: Explaining the Roaring Nineties

Karanassou, Marika; Sala, Hector; Snower, Dennis J. - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2007

This paper analyses the relation between US inflation and unemployment from the perspective of "frictional growth," a … has not only persistent, but permanent real effects, giving rise to a long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff. We … the US unemployment and inflation trajectories during the nineties. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005566580

The US Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff: Methodological Issues and Further Evidence

Karanassou, Marika; Sala, Hector - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2009

chain reactions, and provides new evidence on the long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff in the US. It is argued that … inflation/unemployment responses to money growth shocks. SVAR (structural vector autoregression) and GMM (generalised method of … and real sides of the economy are symbiotic. In the light of the significant and robust long-run inflation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005030883

Googlemetrie und Arbeitsmarkt in der Wirtschaftskrise

Askitas, Nikos; Zimmermann, Klaus F. - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2009

Die große Wirtschaftskrise hat bisher nur verhaltene Spuren am Arbeitsmarkt hinterlassen. Angesichts der unsicheren weiteren konjunkturellen Entwicklung, der schlechten Auslastung der Arbeitskräfte in den Unternehmen und der hohen Kurzarbeit erwarten viele Beobachter zum Herbst einen...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008615418

Prognosen aus dem Internet: Weitere Erholung am Arbeitsmarkt erwartet

Askitas, Nikos; Zimmermann, Klaus F. - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2009

Nach einem neuen methodischen Prognosekonzept, das arbeitsmarktbezogene Internetdaten nutzt, entspannt sich zum Frühjahr 2009 die Arbeitsmarktlage. Das Papier erläutert die Technik der Prognose der Arbeitslosigkeit unter Nutzung der Messung der Google-Suchaktivität und illustriert die...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008615424

Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting

Askitas, Nikos; Zimmermann, Klaus F. - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2009

The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005004554

Unemployment in the European Union: A Dynamic Reappraisal

Karanassou, Marika; Sala, Hector; Snower, Dennis J. - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2002

This paper examines the movements in EU unemployment from two perspectives: (a) the NRU/NAIRU perspective, in which unemployment movements are attributed largely to changes in the long-run equilibrium unemployment rate and (b) the chain-reaction perspective, in which unemployment movements are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005703234

Unemployment in the European Union: Institutions, Prices, and Growth

Karanassou, Marika; Sala, Hector; Snower, Dennis J. - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2003

This paper presents a reappraisal of unemployment movements in the European Union. Our analysis is based on the chain reaction theory of unemployment, which focuses on (a) the interaction among labor market adjustment processes, (b) the interplay between these adjustment processes and the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005703238

Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve: A Reassessment of the US Experience

Karanassou, Marika; Sala, Hector - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2009

the PC and explain the evolution of inflation and unemployment in the US from 1970 to 2006. Since our empirical … and inflation, while the monetary expansion was quite ineffective and led mainly to higher inflation. Finally, the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005011906

Phillips Curves and Unemployment Dynamics: A Critique and a Holistic Perspective

Karanassou, Marika; Sala, Hector; Snower, Dennis J. - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2006

The conventional wisdom that inflation and unemployment are unrelated in the long-run implies that these phenomena can … be analysed by separate branches of economics. The macro literature tries to explain inflation dynamics and estimates the … long-run and that it cannot generate substantial inflation persistence relies on the implausible assumption of a zero …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005566415