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Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?

Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher; Prasad, Eswar - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2008

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups – industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005566406

Bayesian Inference for Duration Data with Unobserved and Unknown Heterogeneity: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application

Paserman, M. Daniele - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2004

This paper describes a semiparametric Bayesian method for analyzing duration data. The proposed estimator specifies a complete functional form for duration spells, but allows flexibility by introducing an individual heterogeneity term, which follows a Dirichlet mixture distribution. I show how...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005703270

Returns to Compulsory Schooling in Britain: Evidence from a Bayesian Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Analysis

Chib, Siddhartha; Jacobi, Liana - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2011

In this paper we reevaluate the returns to education based on the increase in the compulsory schooling age from 14 to 15 in the UK in 1947. We provide a Bayesian fuzzy regression discontinuity approach to infer the effect on earnings for a subset of subjects who turned 14 in a narrow window...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008868126

From Riches to Rags, and Back? Institutional Change, Financial Development and Economic Growth in Argentina since the 1890s

Campos, Nauro F; Karanasos, Menelaos G.; Tan, Bin - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2014

individual effects on economic growth and volatility using the power-ARCH framework with annual data since the 1890s. The results …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011095511

Growth, Volatility and Political Instability: Non-Linear Time-Series Evidence for Argentina, 1896-2000

Campos, Nauro F.; Karanasos, Menelaos - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2007

What is the relationship between economic growth and its volatility? Does political instability affect growth directly … or indirectly, through volatility? This paper tries to answer such questions using a power-ARCH framework with annual … legislative changes) has an indirect (through volatility) negative impact. We also find preliminary support for the idea that …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005761766

Two to Tangle: Financial Development, Political Instability and Economic Growth in Argentina (1896–2000)

Campos, Nauro F.; Karanasos, Menelaos G.; Tan, Bin - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2008

.g., cabinet changes) has an indirect (through volatility) impact on growth; (iii) the effect of financial development is positive … and, surprisingly, not via volatility; (iv) the informal instability effects are much larger in the short- than in the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005703824

Robust Linear Static Panel Data Models Using ε-Contamination

Baltagi, Badi H.; Bresson, Georges; Chaturvedi, Anoop; … - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2014

The paper develops a general Bayesian framework for robust linear static panel data models using ε-contamination. A two-step approach is employed to derive the conditional type-II maximum likelihood (ML-II) posterior distribution of the coefficients and individual effects. The ML-II posterior...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011094081

Bayesian Exploratory Factor Analysis

Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; … - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2014

This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010884284

The Quantity and Quality of Children: A Semi-Parametric Bayesian IV Approach

Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Halla, Martin; Posekany, … - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2014

Prior empirical research on the theoretically proposed interaction between the quantity and the quality of children builds on exogenous variation in family size due to twin births and focuses on human capital outcomes. The typical finding can be described as a statistically nonsignificant...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010959564

Household Finances and Social Interaction: Bayesian Analysis of Household Panel Data

Brown, Sarah; Ghosh, Pulak; Taylor, Karl - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2014

We investigate the relationship between social interaction and household finances using data from the British Household Panel Survey. We contribute to the existing literature by exploring the relationship between a wide range of aspects of household finances and social interaction, rather than...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010959752