We propose that the natural rate of unemployment has an active role in the business cycle, in contrast to the … Phillips-curve framework of low---often extremely low---response of inflation to unemployment could be the result of fairly … most Phillips-curve studies, that conclude that inflation has little relation to unemployment. We suggest that the flat …

variables while it is uncorrelated with life satisfaction. The unemployment rate and the CPI reduce both. We analyze data for 29 … European countries to predict changes in the unemployment rate 12 months ahead using individuals' fears of unemployment in the … presence of country and year fixed effects and lagged unemployment. We also use firms' expectations of future employment, which …

Licensed workers could be shielded from unemployment during recession since occupational licensing laws are asymmetric …-in-differences event study research design that exploits cross-state variation in licensing laws to compare the unemployment rate between …, we find that licensing shields workers from a recession-induced increase in the unemployment rate of 0.82 p.p. during …

Unemployment inflows fell from 4 percent of employment per month in the early 1980s to 2 percent or less by the mid … parameter in search and matching models of unemployment. According to these models, a lower intensity of idiosyncratic shocks … produces less job destruction, fewer workers flowing through the unemployment pool and less frictional unemployment. To …

New data compel a new view of events in the labor market during a recession. Unemployment rises almost entirely because … finding from new data is that a large fraction of workers departing jobs move to new jobs without intervening unemployment. I …

-cycle-frequency fluctuations in unemployment and job vacancies in response to shocks of a plausible magnitude. In the U.S., the vacancy-unemployment … vacancy-unemployment ratio and labor productivity have nearly the same variance. I establish this claim both using analytical … small movement along a downward sloping Beveridge curve (unemployment-vacancy locus). A shock to the job destruction rate …

We study how the level of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits that trades off the consumption smoothing benefit with … moral hazard cost is procyclical, greater when the unemployment rate is relatively low. By contrast, our evidence suggests … standard deviation increase in the unemployment rate leads to a roughly 14 to 27 percentage point increase in the welfare …

In recessions, unemployment increases despite the--perhaps counterintuitive--fact that the number of unemployed workers … finding jobs expands. We propose a theory of unemployment fluctuations resting on this countercyclicality of gross flows from … unemployment into employment. In recessions, the abundance of new hires "congests" the jobs the unemployed fill--diminishing their …

sharp increase in the incidence of long-term unemployment (LTU) during the Great Recession. We first show that compositional … shifts in demographics, occupation, industry, region, and the reason for unemployment jointly account for very little of the … model that allows for duration dependence in the exit rate from unemployment and for transitions between employment (E …