Can nominal exchange rates be characterized by deterministic chaos? To answer this question, a statistical framework utilizing a blockwise bootstrap procedure is used to test for the presence of a positive Lyapunov exponent in an observed stochastic time series (Bask and Gencay, 1998). Daily...

This thesis consists of four papers. The first three deal with deterministic chaos in exchange rate series whereas the fourth deals with technical analysis in the foreign exchange market. Paper [i] (

The empirically most relevant stylized facts when it comes to modeling time varying financial volatility are the asymmetric response to return shocks and the long memory property. Up till now, these have largely been modeled in isolation though. To more flexibly capture asymmetry also with...

This thesis comprises four papers concerning risk prediction. Paper [I] suggests a nonlinear and multivariate time series model framework that enables the study of simultaneity in returns and in volatilities, as well as asymmetric effects arising from shocks. Using daily data 2000-2006 for the...

non-linear dynamic models may be characterized and studied, where the degree of stability is defined by the effects of exogenous shocks on the evolution of the observed stochastic system. This type of stability concept is frequently of interest in economics, e.g., in real business cycle theory....

We introduce the notions of short and long term asymmetric effects in volatilities. With short term asymmetry we mean the conventional one, i.e. the asymmetric response of current volatility to the most recent return shocks. However, there may be asymmetries in the way the effect of past return...

This thesis consists of five self-contained papers, which are all related to the financial markets in the three Baltic States, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Paper [I] studies the impact of news from the Moscow and New York stock exchanges on the returns and volatilities of the Baltic States'...