All population projections are based in one form or another on expert judgement about likely future trends, structural continuity, etc. Although experts are clearly superior to lay people in their field of expertise, when it comes to forecasting they may make serious errors and can be as...

This report presents the first probabilistic population forecasts for the European Union following the approach of expert based probabilistic projections as developed at IIASA. The central, high and low assumptions use for future fertility, mortality and migration correspond essentially to those...

This paper develops a quantitative simulation model linking population parameters and education to land degradation, food production and distribution, and resulting in the proportion of the population which is food insecure. This model is inspired by the Vicious Circle Model of Dasgupta and...

The traditional way of dealing with uncertainty in population projections through \f2high\f1 and \f2low\f1 variants is unsatisfactory because it remains unclear what range of uncertainty these alternative paths are assumed to cover. Probabilistic approaches have not found their way into...

The report provides a concise and comprehensive review of available data on past demographic trends in the region and combines this analysis with expert opinion on alternative future demographic trends (as described in Lutz, 1996) to calculate likely ranges of future population growth. A very...

This volume is the third in a series of case studies of population, development, and environment interactions. In the style of the other two studies this report is divided into two parts. The first part is a set of studies of the history, culture, environment, and economy of the Yucatan...

There has been a recent upsurge of interest in probabilistic population projections. Two methods have been suggested in the literature for forecasting the inputs into those projections: (1) a random lines (RL) approach, and (2) a simple autoregressive approach (AR(1)). The purpose of this paper...

This paper discusses one of the most difficult issues in modeling complex population-environment interactions: The advantages and disadvantages of highly disaggregated empirical models versus highly reduced theoretical models. The analysis is carried out on the basis of the PEDA model, recently...