This Selected Issues paper on Bulgaria investigates possible driving forces behind the investment boom based on cross-country evidence. The diagnosis of the drivers behind the investment boom is important as it is key to assessing Bulgaria’s economic prospects, vulnerabilities, and policy...

This paper assesses Bulgaria’s 2002 Article IV Consultation, First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), and a Request for Waiver of Non-observance and Waiver of Applicability. The authorities’ structural reform program is ambitious, but implementation needs to be stepped up. In...

The paper assesses key aspects of Bulgaria's competitiveness. The challenge is to stay on course and persist with policies that will maintain and strengthen competitiveness. Implementation of the ambitious reform policy with respect to the pension and health care systems is required. The reasons...

In 1999, Executive Board deliberations on Bulgaria focused on the need for the authorities to persevere with structural reform. Under the currency board arrangement introduced in mid-1997, Bulgaria has achieved macroeconomic stabilization and made substantial progress in structural reform....

This paper assesses key aspects of Bulgaria’s competitiveness. The behavior of a variety of a real exchange rate indicators and export performance is also examined in this study. The Balassa–Samuelson effect refers to the impact of differential productivity growth rates in the tradables and...

In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country

Bulgaria’s currency board arrangement continues to have broad political and public support and shows no signs of strain, as interest rates are low and stable, fiscal reserves ample, and banks liquid. A structural reform agenda has also been implemented. The authorities have improved banking...

The extensive growth model introduced under central planning in the 1950s resulted in rapid industrialization and initially high growth. The efforts to bring the banking system on a sound footing following the 1996–97 crises have hardened budget constraints, but they have yet to result in a...

This 2008 Article IV Consultation discusses that Bulgaria has been hit by the global financial crisis, with clear signs that the country’s capital inflows-driven boom has come to an end and that the real economy is slowing down. Executive Directors have commended the Bulgarian authorities for...

The large capital inflows that generated a domestic demand boom in Bulgaria led to strong employment growth. But a sharp reduction in capital inflows led to a contraction of domestic demand, while the recession in Bulgaria’s trading partners caused a drop in exports. Public policies will also...