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Fat Tails and their (Un)Happy Endings : Correlation Bias and its Implications for Systemic Risk and Prudential Regulation

International Monetary Fund - 2011

The correlation bias refers to the fact that claim subordination in the capital structure of the firm influences claim … holders’ preferred degree of asset correlation in portfolios held by the firm. Using the copula capital structure model, it is … shown that the correlation bias shifts shareholder preferences towards highly correlated assets, making financial …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401318

Systemic Financial Risk in Payment Systems

International Monetary Fund - 1990

Efficient and stable payments systems are of fundamental importance in maintaining an orderly international monetary system. Major disruptions of national and international payments systems would have highly adverse effects on international trade, capital flows, and real activity. A key...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396195

Guarding Against Fiscal Risks in Hong Kong SAR

International Monetary Fund - 2007

volatility creates risks to service provision, possibly entailing sudden tax changes, or even requiring new borrowing. After … fiscal savings (reserves), and the impact alternate policy choices could have on revenue volatility …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400988

Macrofinance Model of the Czech Economy : Asset Allocation Perspective

International Monetary Fund - 2012

The paper developes a VAR macrofinance model of the Czech economy. It shows that yield misalignments from the yields implied by the macrofinance model partially determine subsequent yield changes over three to nine months. These yield misalignments tend to persist for a number of months. This...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396906

Saving-Investment Correlations : Immobile Capital. Government Policy or Endogenous Behavior?

International Monetary Fund - 1989

This paper analyzes reasons for the high post-war correlations of saving and investment, both across countries and over time. It is concluded that the main reason for the observed high correlations over the recent period is probably government policy

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396226

Moreon the Effectiveness of Public Spendingon Health Care and Education : A Covariance Structure Model

International Monetary Fund - 2002

Using data for a sample of developing and transition countries, this paper estimates the relationship between government spending on health care and education, and social indicators. Unlike previous studies, where social indicators are used as proxies for the unobservable health and education...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399239

Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market

International Monetary Fund - 1990

This paper seeks to advance the discussion of monetary policy strategies in several ways. One involves a comparison of targets for nominal GNP and the price level, with emphasis on specificational robustness and implications for output variability. A second pertains to various “indicator”...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396173

Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market

International Monetary Fund - 1990

This paper examines the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half addresses a number of key questions regarding the forecasts of future exchange rates made by market participants, by means of updated estimates using survey data. Here we follow most of the theoretical and empirical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396182

Exchange Rate Volatility and World Trade

International Monetary Fund - 1984

In View of the continuation of substantial movements in exchange rate relationships among major currencies, the recent increase in protectionist pressures, and the disappointing performance of world trade, renewed concern has been expressed about the possible adverse effects of exchange rate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014406218

Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows : Some New Evidence

International Monetary Fund - 2004

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014409758