increase in protectionist pressures, and the disappointing performance of world trade, renewed concern has been expressed about …

and world commodity supplies and the real exchange rate and real commodity prices. It is shown that fiscal expansion and … increasing world commodity supplies simultaneously lead to an appreciation of the real exchange rate and a decline in relative … commodity prices. This structural model is estimated and its forecasting performance is compared to a variety of models. We find …

This paper studies the impact of the level and volatility of the commodity terms of trade on economic growth, as well … (CPMG) methodology of Pesaran et al. (1999) for estimation. The latter takes account of cross-country heterogeneity and … of trade growth enhances real output per capita, volatility exerts a negative impact on economic growth operating mainly …

volatility creates risks to service provision, possibly entailing sudden tax changes, or even requiring new borrowing. After … fiscal savings (reserves), and the impact alternate policy choices could have on revenue volatility …