This Selected Issues paper estimates both Guatemala’s potential output and output gap using a wide range of econometric techniques. The analysis suggests that Guatemala’s potential output growth is about 3.5 percent for the whole sample period and that the output gap is almost...

Upon entry into the European Union, countries become members of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), with a derogation from adopting the euro as their currency (that is, each country joining the EU commits to replace its national currency with the euro, but can choose when to request...

This 2004 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic growth in South Africa slowed in 2003 to 1.9 percent, from 3.6 percent in 2002, despite strong domestic demand. Fuelled by low interest rates, a more expansionary fiscal stance, and the wealth effects from strong commodity and property...

This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic recovery in Mexico that began in mid-2003 has continued in 2005, though at a slower pace. A broad-based expansion of economic activity in 2004, driven by a rebound of private consumption and private investment, took growth up to 4.4...

This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix deals with the issue of low growth in Algeria. A growth-accounting exercise indicates that negative total factor productivity growth explains Algeria’s low growth rates. This paper highlights the sources of this low growth that mainly...

This Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix paper presents cross-country regression results that identify investment in physical capital and improvements in institutional quality as having the largest pay-off in terms of increased growth. The paper employs three approaches to forecast...

This 2004 Article IV Consultation highlights that Zimbabwe’s real GDP declined by 9.3 percent in 2003, and an additional broad-based decline is projected in 2004. Year-over-year inflation reached 600 percent during November 2003–February 2004. However, monthly inflation, which had...

This 2002 Article IV Consultation for the Kingdom of the Netherlands—Aruba highlights that after growing at more than 4 percent per year in 1996–2000, the Aruba economy experienced two years of retrenchment, with GDP falling an estimated 1.2 percent in 2001 and 3.8 percent in 2002....

This 2004 Article IV Consultation highlights that Japan’s economic recovery continued in 2003 and into the first part of 2004. For 2003, GDP growth reached 2½ percent, double the mid-year consensus forecast, and continued at about 6 percent on an annualized basis in the first quarter...

This 2003 Article IV Consultation for Hungary highlights that developments in growth and inflation were broadly positive in 2002. Buoyed by domestic demand, real GDP growth increased to 3.5 percent (year-over-year) in the second half of 2002 from 3.0 percent in the first half. Headline inflation...