The 2008 crisis underscored the interconnectedness of the international business cycle, with U.S. shocks leading to the largest global slowdown since the 1930s. We estimate spillover effects across major advanced country regions in a structural VAR (SVAR) using pre-crisis data. Our new method...

This paper examines the generation of financial crises in developing economies and shows that the microeconomic structure of the financial sector is a crucial factor in creating the conditions for a crisis. Structural problems of the financial system in developing countries, including implicit...

The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and...

Forward-looking behavior on the part of the monetary authority leads least squares estimates to understate the true growth consequences of monetary policy interventions. We present instrumental variables estimates of the impact of interest rates on real output growth for several European...

This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic downturn of New Zealand that commenced in 2005 has proved to be short lived. In early 2006, the economy appeared to be cooling quickly, with quarterly growth dropping to zero and confidence and demand indicators deteriorating. Some...

This paper assesses the impact of a disruption to capital inflows by examining past episodes of capital inflows in New Zealand and other countries. It also reviews the IMF’s Global Economy Model (GEM), which is used to provide some estimates of the equilibrium relationship between New...

This Selected Issues paper analyzes the effect of international migration on unemployment in New Zealand. The empirical results in this paper suggest that net migration inflows give rise to a fall in the unemployment rate. The paper estimates a system of equations including the unemployment...

In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country

After several years of strong growth, the New Zealand economy entered a recession in early 2008. The 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that the near-term outlook for New Zealand is weak. Executive Directors have noted that the significant fiscal stimulus under way will help cushion the...