The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and...

This paper considers the demand for various monetary aggregates with a view to assessing their potential roles as intermediate variables for monetary policy. Illustrative estimates using a generalized autoregressive distributed lag model are presented. For M1, the results support an “error...

This paper presents an econometric model of U.S. current account transactions. The model is used to analyze the factors behind the deterioration in the U.S. external position during the 1980s and to examine the sensitivity of the U.S. current account balance to changes in factors which are its...

The 2008 crisis underscored the interconnectedness of the international business cycle, with U.S. shocks leading to the largest global slowdown since the 1930s. We estimate spillover effects across major advanced country regions in a structural VAR (SVAR) using pre-crisis data. Our new method...

The global financial crisis underscored the costs of systemic instability at both the national and global levels and highlighted the importance of dedicated macroprudential and capital flow management policies. The IMF has been assisting its members with policy advice as well as developing and...

The Background Papers gathers together a number of studies that were prepared as research to the final report. Although not a part of the report itself, these papers provide detail on a number of issues grouped together here by general topic; data sources and methodology, direct investment,...