This Selected Issues paper estimates potential output and the output gap in Russia. Estimating potential output in Russia is difficult because its economy is large and complex, in transition, and dependent on oil. First, Russia presents large territorial and sectoral heterogeneity. Second,...

This paper presents a statistical analysis of revisions in quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) of the Group of Twenty countries (G-20) since 2000. The main objective is to assess whether the reliability of early estimates of quarterly GDP has been weakened from the turmoil of the 2008...

Rising fuel subsidies have contributed to fiscal pressures in India. A key policy concern regarding subsidy reform is the adverse welfare impact on households, in particular poor households. This paper evaluates the fiscal and welfare implications of fuel subsidy reform in India. Fuel subsidies...

This paper reviews the Latin American experience with the implementation of 1993 SNAand the updating of the national accounts' base year. It also makes a preliminary assessment of the possible estimation biases in nominal GDP estimates stemming from the use of outdated national accounts base...

This paper uses household survey data to estimate the incidence of tax and spending programs in Honduras. Any such exercise is fraught with difficulty, so our simplifying assumptions are carefully explained. Rather than look at tax and spending completely independently, we evaluate net incidence...

Comprehensive coverage of national accounts estimates is important; however, it is often thwarted by gaps in the recording of economic activity – the so-called “unrecorded economy”. This paper sets out pragmatic statistical approaches for incorporating the unrecorded economy in the...

This paper assesses the distributional impact of the recent VAT reform in the Philippines and evaluates alternative methods to mitigate the effects of the reform on poor households. The reform was progressive and relatively well targeted. To alleviate the impact of the reform on the poor,...

This paper analyzes the effectiveness of technical assistance provided by AFRITAC West (AFW) in the area of national accounts using the Fund's Technical Assistance Information Management System (TAIMS). The challenge has been to report on "ultimate outcomes" (i.e., the production and...