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A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short-Term Unemployment
Ball, Laurence M.; Mazumder, Sandeep - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2015
-market slack is captured by the level of shortterm unemployment. This equation explains inflation behavior since 2000, including … the failure of high total unemployment since 2008 to reduce inflation greatly. The fit of our equation is especially good … general Phillips curve in which core inflation depends on short-term unemployment and on expected inflation as measured by the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242402
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Inflation Reports and Models: How Well Do Central Banks Really Write?
Bulir, Ales; Hurník, Jaromír; Smidkova, Katerina - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2014
We offer a novel methodology for assessing the quality of inflation reports. In contrast to the existing literature, which mostly evaluates the formal quality of these reports, we evaluate their economic content by comparing inflation factors reported by the central banks with ex-post...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142061
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Value of WTO Trade Agreements in a New Keynesian Model
Ganelli, Giovanni; Tervala, Juha - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2015
We revisit the question of the quantitative benefits of WTO trade agreements in a setup that is non-standard from the traditional trade policy point of view. We show that in a New Keynesian model, unilateral trade liberalization reduces welfare due to terms-of-trade deterioration, creating an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242404
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Recent U.S. Labor Force Dynamics: Reversible or not?
Balakrishnan, Ravi; Dao, Mai; Sole, Juan; Zook, Jeremy - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2015
The U.S. labor force participation rate (LFPR) fell dramatically following the Great Recession and has yet to start recovering. A key question is how much of the post-2007 decline is reversible, something which is central to the policy debate. The key finding of this paper is that while around...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242381
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Uncertainty and Unemployment: The Effects of Aggregate and Sectoral Channels
Choi, Sangyup; Loungani, Prakash - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2015
We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and … measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic … vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242392
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Credit Constraints, Productivity Shocks and Consumption Volatility in Emerging Economies
Bhattacharya, Rudrani; Patnaik, Ila - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
How does access to credit impact consumption volatility? Theory and evidence from advanced economies suggests that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790416
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GEM; A New International Macroeconomic Model
Bayoumi, Tamim; Faruqee, Hamid; Laxton, Douglas; Karam, … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2004
Over the past two years, the IMF staff has been developing a new multicountry macroeconomic model called the Global Economy Model (GEM). This paper explains why such a model is needed, how GEM differs from its predecessor model, and how the new features of the model can improve the IMF’s...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005590952
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The Dynamics of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in the United States in Light of the Financial Crisis of 2007-2010
Waldo, Marco Rodriguez; Medeiros, Carlos I. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011
This paper assesses the dynamics of the term structure of interest rates in the United States in light of the financial crisis in 2007-10. In particular, this paper assesses the dynamics of the term structure of U.S. Treasury security yields in light of economic and financial events and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009019574
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Tests of German Resilience
Bornhorst, Fabian; Mody, Ashoka - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2012
From its early post-war catch-up phase, Germany’s formidable export engine has been its consistent driver of growth. But Germany has almost equally consistently run current account surpluses. Exports have powered the dynamic phases and helped emerge from stagnation. Volatile external...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142028
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Medium-Term Fiscal Multipliers during Protracted Recessions
Dell'Erba, Salvatore; Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2014
The paper examines the consequences of fiscal consolidation in times of persistently low growth and high unemployment … unemployment at five-year horizons are significantly above one during PR episodes. These results suggest that medium-term fiscal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142040