We implement a three-step procedure to assess the extent of exposure to real estate in commercial banks. First, we demonstrate interest rates and income to be the major determinants of delinquency. Then, we adopt a stress testing approach to calculate the impact of any adverse changes in these...

This paper studies how fiscal policy affects loan market conditions in the US. First, it conducts a Structural Vector-Autoregression analysis showing that the bank spread responds negatively to an expansionary government spending shock, while lending increases. Second, it illustrates that these...

This paper questions the view that leverage should have forewarned us of the global financial crisis of 2007-09, pointing to several gearing indicators that were neither useful portents of the onset of the crisis nor of its ferocity. Instead it shows, first, that the use of ill-suited collateral...

This Selected Issues paper discusses several features of the Slovene economy that may explain the weak relationship between credit and domestic demand growth. It reviews credit growth developments in Slovenia and in selected European Union new member states, and compares their experiences with...

This paper discusses key findings of the Sixth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) for Albania. The macroeconomic performance of the Albanian economy has been good overall, with sustained growth and low inflation. Weak infrastructure and...

This paper reviews Albania’s 2004 Article IV Consultation, Fifth Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF), Request for Extension of the Arrangement, and Financing Assurances Review. The macroeconomic performance of the Albanian economy has been remarkable by both...

This 2004 Article IV Consultation highlights that India is on track for another year of robust growth in 2004/05. Supported by a strong monsoon, growth rebounded to 8½ percent in 2003/04, the highest level in more than a decade. In 2005, firms appear to have embarked on a new investment...

This Selected Issues paper analyzes the United State’s (U.S.) household savings role in supporting the U.S. recovery; and focuses on the market for single-family housing, and the importance for household balance sheets. It discusses the underfunding of corporate pension plans,...

This paper develops a framework for analyzing macro-financial linkages in the United States. We estimate the effects of a negative shock to banks' capital/assetratio on lending standards, which in turn affect consumer credit, mortgages, and corporate loans, and the corresponding components of...