We propose a new method for the analysis of systemic stability of a banking system relying mostly on market data. We model both asset correlations and interlinkages from interbank borrowing so that our analysis gauges two major sources of systemic risk: correlated exposures and mutual credit...

Assessing the stability of the financial sector is becoming more common in many countries. This paper presents two useful approaches, applied to the Netherlands. First we discuss the results of a contagion analysis of the Dutch interbank market. We use various ways to measure linkages between...

We compare the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of the time-varying hazard model developed by Shumway (2001) and the one-period probit model used by Cole and Gunther (1998). Using data on U.S. bank failures from 1985 – 1992, we find that, from an econometric perspective, the hazard model is...

In this study, we analyze why U.S. commercial banks failed during the recent financial crisis. We find that proxies for commercial real estate investments, as well as traditional proxies for the CAMELS components, do an excellent job in explaining the failures of banks that were closed during...

This Technical Note elaborates the recommendations made in the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) for Italy in the areas of contingency planning, crisis management, and bank resolution. The note sets out a brief overview of the impact of the global financial crisis in Italy and how the...

The United States economy has suffered over the past four years from crises in mortgage foreclosures and in financial markets, as well as a long recession that some have referred to as the Great Recession. The links between these events, or more broadly the causes, extent and effects of these...

The most recent crisis prompted regulatory authorities to implement directives prescribing actions to resolve systemic banking crises. Recent findings show that government intervention results in only a small proportion of bank recoveries. This study examines the reasons for this failure and...