Equity prices have been falling since March 2000. How far can they fall before they reach bottom? The current bear market differs from the mid-1970s plunge in equity prices in terms of the causes and, consequently, the factors that should be monitored to test its progress. In the 1970s, the bear...

Central banks have an aversion to bailing out speculators when asset bubbles burst, but ultimately, as custodians of the financial system, they have to do exactly that. Their actions are justified by the goal of protecting the economy from the bursting of bubbles; while their intention may be...

All of the various schemes that have been put forward to resolve the current credit crisis follow either the "business as usual" or the "good bank" model. The "business as usual" model takes different forms--insurance or guarantee of the assets or liabilities of the financial institutions,...

From this paper's Preface, by Dr. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, President: A rebound of consumption, investment, and consumer confidence in the second half of 2003 has raised hopes that the U.S. economic recovery from the 2001 recession is on a sustainable course. According to this brief by Philip...

In an asset and debt deflation, the process of reducing debt by saving and curtailing spending takes a long time, say the authors. Current imbalances and poor prospects for spending in the private sector affect the balance sheets of the commercial banks. The downward spiral between the banks and...

The anemic U.S. economic recovery and the threat of a double-dip recession stem from the weakness of investment, due to excess capacity created in the euphoric years of the "new economy" bubble. The current imbalances in the corporate sector (i.e., the all-time-high indebtedness in the face of...

The consumer has been on a tightrope since the bursting of the "new economy" bubble, as losses in equity markets have been partly offset by gains in real estate and fiscal support and mortgage refinancing have partly offset increased consumer cautiousness. The consumer will remain on a tightrope...