Recent research has demonstrated that while government expenditures are countercyclical inmost industrialized countries, they tend to be procyclical in developing countries. We develop adynamic political economy model to explain this phenomenon. In the model, public expendituresprovide insurance...

Both conventional wisdom and leading academic research view pork barrel spendingas antithetical to responsible policymaking in times of crisis. In this paper we presentan alternative view. When agents are heterogeneous in their ideology and in theirinformation about the economic situation,...

We contribute to the intense debate on the real effects of …fiscal stimuli by showingthat the impact of government expenditure shocks depends crucially on key countrycharacteristics, such as the level of development, exchange rate regime, openness totrade, and public indebtedness. Based on a...

A large empirical literature claims that …fiscal policy in developingcountries is procyclical, in contrast to high-income countries where it is countercyclical. Some authors, however, have questioned this …finding because theliterature has typically ignored endogeneity problems. To settle this...

An optimizingmodel, with a flexible-price sector and a sticky-price sector, ispresented to analyze the effects of relative-price changes on inflation fluctuations. Therelative price of the flexible-price good represents a shift parameter of the NewKeynesian Phillips curve. The optimal monetary...

We describe a behavior of a central bank when its measures of current inflation and outputare subject to measurement errors, in a framework of optimizing models with nominal pricestickiness. In our model, a central bank sets the interest rate equal to its current estimate of theso-called...

The 1990s were characterized by substantial financial sectorconsolidation across a large number of industrializedcountries...

The global financial crisis that began in mid-2007 has renewedconcerns about financial instability and focused attention onthe fundamental role of central banks in preventing andmanaging systemic crises. In response to the turmoil, centralbanks have made extensive use of both new and existing...

In this paper, we assess the effects of changes to the primarycredit facility since August 2007 by performing out-of-samplesimulations based on a model developed by Artuç andDemiralp (2008). Our results are highly consistent with thepredictions of our 2008 study—that is, the revised...

[...]This paper addresses how central banks can resuscitatelending chains by providing information that reduces uncertainty about participants along the chains. This action has been taken before: the Bank Holiday of 1933, declared byPresident Franklin Delano Roosevelt, resolved uncertaintyabout...