This paper studies asset allocation decisions in the presence of regime switching in asset returns. Wefind evidence that four separate regimes - characterized as crash, slow growth, bull and recovery states- are required to capture the joint distribution of stock and bond returns. Optimal asset...

We calculate optimal portfolio choices for a long-horizon, risk-averse investor who diversifies amongEuropean stocks, bonds, real estate, and cash, when excess asset returns are predictable. Simulations areperformed for scenarios involving different risk aversion levels, horizons, and...

Welfare gains to long-horizon investors may derive from time diversification that exploits non-zerointertemporal return correlations associated with predictable returns. Real estate may thus become moredesirable if its returns are negatively serially correlated. While it could be important for...