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Recent empirical evidence identifies investment shocks as key driving forces behind business cycle fluctuations … between consumption growth and investment growth, a weak positive unconditional correlation between consumption growth and … short-run contractionary effect a positive investment shock on consumption. Such counterfactual co-movements are typical of …
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We examine the properties of the ASA-NBER forecasts for several US macroeconomic variables, specifically: (i) are the actual and forecast series integrated of the same order; (ii) are they cointegrated, and; (iii) is the cointegrating vector consistent with long run unitary elasticity of...
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, according to the Johansen procedure, cointegration fails to hold the farther out the forecasts extend. At the one year ahead …
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We investigate the behavior of the long-run U.S./U.K. real exchange rate from 1885 to 1995. Our long-run real exchange rate series is derived from an unobserved components model which divides the real exchange rate into permanent and transitory components. The transitory component is modeled as...
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output from first principles. Cointegration and common features (cycles) tests are performed and sectoral output data seem to …
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This paper tests for cointegration between regional output of an industry and national output of the same industry. An … equilibrium economic theory is presented to argue for the plausibility of cointegration, however, regional economic forecasting … using the shift and share framework often acts as if cointegration does not exist. Data analysis on broad industrial sectors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475744