Much of the new growth literature stresses country characteristics, such as education levels or political stability, as the dominant determinant of growth. However, growth rates are highly unstable over time, with a correlation across decades of .1 to .3, while country characteristics are...

This paper develops an algorithm for analyzing discrete events, such as labor market transitions, when some of these transitions are spurious because of measurement errors. Our algorithm extends the standard multinomial logit model, although our basic approach could be used with other stochastic...

This paper summarizes our earlier research documenting the characteristic speculative dynamics of many asset markets and suggests a framework for understanding them. Our model incorporates "feedback traders," traders whose demand is based on the history of past returns rather than the...

This paper presents evidence on the characteristic speculative dynamics of a wide range of asset returns. It highlights three stylized facts. First, returns tend to be positively serially correlated at high frequency. Second, returns tend to be negatively serially correlated over long horizons....

Analyses of the role of rational speculators in financial markets usually presume that such investors dampen price fluctuations by trading against liquidity or noise traders. This conclusion does not necessarily hold when noise traders follow positive-feedback investment strategies buy when...

It is often argued that the most important costs of inflation can be substantially mitigated by indexing reforms. Yet governments in moderate inflation countries have generally been very reluctant to promote institutional changes that would reduce the costs of inflation. Capital income continues...

We use the revised estimates of U.S. GNP constructed by Christina Romer (1989) to assess the time-series properties of U.S. output per capita over the past century. We reject at conventional significance levels the null that output is a random walk in favor of the alternative that output is a...

Hall has pointed out that, when there is perfect competition and price flexibility, labor hoarding alone will not induce the Solow residual measured using labor's share in revenues to be procyclical. We show that, even with perfect competition, a small amount of price rigidity - we assume firms...

The claim that financial markets are efficient is backed by an implicit argument that misinformed "noise traders" can have little influence on asset prices in equilibrium. If noise traders' beliefs are sufficiently different from those of rational agents to significantly affect prices, then...

This paper offers some observations on employee crime, economic theories of crime, limits on bonding, and the efficiency wage hypothesis. We demonstrate that the simplest economic theories of crime predict that profit-maximizing firms should follow strategies of minimal monitoring and large...