Showing 1 - 10 of 61
others used the gravity model on a much smaller data set to estimate the effects of the euro on trade among its members. The … that were estimated in the euro's first four years hold up in the second four years? The answer is yes. Second, and more … explanations for the gap between 15% and 200%. First, lags. The euro is still very young. Second, size. The European countries are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464108
The possibility that the euro area might break up was being raised even before the single currency existed. These … scenarios were then lent new life five or six years on, when appreciation of the euro and problems of slow growth in various … unlikely, I argue here, that one or more members of the euro area will leave in the next ten years; total disintegration of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465257
All of the attempts to end the euro crisis and to return the Eurozone countries to healthy growth rates of income and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457804
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013480726
This report describes an easily computable model of the relation between cigarette prices and cigarette consumption in the United States. The model is used to predict the revenue impacts of Federal excise tax hikes ranging from $0.45 to $1.76 per pack
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474117
"We identify a new set of stylized facts on the 2008-2009 trade collapse that we hope can be used to shed light on the importance of demand and supply-side factors in explaining the fall in trade. In particular, we decompose the fall in international trade into product entry and exit, price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011395038
With many emerging market currencies tied to the U.S. dollar either implicitly or explicitly, movements in the exchange … emerging market perspective. Given that sterilized intervention by industrial economies tends to be ineffective and that policy … authorities to use domestic monetary policy to that end. Under a system of target zones, then, relative prices for emerging market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470183
This paper applies a full-information technique to test for the presence of contagion across the money markets of ERM member countries. We show that whenever it is possible to estimate a model for interdependence, a test for contagion based on a full information technique is more powerful. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470953
Existing models of contagious currency crises are summarized and surveyed, and it is argued that more weight should be put on political factors. Towards this end, the concept of political contagion introduced, whereby contagion in speculative attacks across currencies arises solely because of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471578
On October 6. 1979, the Federal Reserve announced what most people interpreted as a change in monetary policy. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the effects of this change on the 1980-81 economy. The effects of the change are estimated from simulations with my model of the U.S. economy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478597