This paper analyzes the dramatic rise in U.S. inflation since 2020, which we decompose into a rise in core inflation as … measured by the weighted median inflation rate and deviations of headline inflation from core. We explain the rise in core with …-through into core from past shocks to headline inflation. The headline shocks themselves are explained largely by increases in …

Our current inflation stemmed from a fiscal shock. The Fed is slow to react. Why? Will the Fed's slow reaction spur … more inflation? I write a simple model that encompasses the Fed's mild projections and its slow reaction, and traditional … views that inflation will surge without swift rate rises. The key question is whether expectations are forward looking or …

inflation expectations. We develop this measure using assumptions common in economic analysis of open economies. Using quarterly …

A parsimonious model of shifting policy regimes can simultaneously capture expected and actual US inflation during 1969 …. Private sector learning about policymaker type leads to a reputation state variable. We use model inflation forecasting rules … to extract state variables from SPF inflation forecasts. US inflation is tracked by optimal policy without commitment …

short-run and long-run inflation expectations. The estimated model allows us to analyze the direct and indirect effects of … product-market and labor-market shocks on prices and nominal wages and to quantify the sources of U.S. pandemic-era inflation … and wage growth. We find that, contrary to early concerns that inflation would be spurred by overheated labor markets …

inflation in the expected directions. Analysis of available policy records suggests that a contractionary monetary shock likely … impacts on real GDP and inflation in 2023 and 2024 …

public finances. We show that when the ECB misses its inflation target this has large heterogeneous fiscal consequences for … missing their inflation targets. They are also sizeable …

This paper examines what strategies policymakers have used to both reduce and control inflation. It first outlines why … a consensus has emerged that inflation needs to be controlled. Then it examines four basic strategies: exchange rate … pegging, monetary targeting, inflation targeting, and the just do it' strategy of preemptive monetary policy with no explicit …