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We survey work using Bayesian learning in macroeconomics, highlighting common themes and new directions. First, we present many of the common types of learning problems agents face---signal extraction problems---and trace out their effects on macro aggregates, in different strategic settings....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660016
This paper investigates what features of an economy determine whether convergence under learning is fast or slow. In all of the models that we consider, people's beliefs about model outcomes are central determinants of those outcomes. We argue that under certain circumstances, convergence of a...
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Foresightful workers can take actions to reduce their exposure to risk in labor markets, but existing evidence on narrow bracketing suggests that individuals might not optimally integrate risk reduction decisions with subsequent labor decisions. In an online labor market, we vary the level of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013477286
In his papers during the lead up to the birth of the European Monetary Union, Obstfeld considered whether the countries forming the EMU were sufficiently similar to survive a single monetary policy--and more importantly, whether they had the capacity to adjust to asymmetric shocks given a single...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337753
We discuss the considerable literature that has developed in recent years providing rigorous evidence on how industrial policies work. This literature is a significant improvement over the earlier generation of empirical work, which was largely correlational and marred by interpretational...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337772
We propose and experimentally test a new theory of probability distortions in risky choice. The theory is based on a … theory generates additional novel predictions regarding heterogeneity and time variation in probability distortions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337806