its slope coefficient in recent years, as well as a shrinking role of lagged price inflation in the determination of wage … inflation. We provide estimates of a conditional wage Phillips curve, based on a structural decomposition of wage, price and …

Treasury bill rate, housing starts, industrial production, inflation and their forecasts are trend stationary. The corporate …

This paper provides an explanation for the run-up of U.S. inflation in the 1960s and 1970s and the sharp disinflation … by low inflation. However, prolonged episodes of high inflation ending with rapid disinflations can occur when … policymakers underestimate both the natural rate of unemployment and the persistence of inflation in the Phillips curve. I estimate …

unemployment-inflation tradeoff since 1995 …

inflation expectations. We develop this measure using assumptions common in economic analysis of open economies. Using quarterly …

in recent decades can be explained by the success that monetary policy has had in quelling inflation and anchoring … inflation expectations since the 1980s. We also review the experience of the 1960s, the last time inflation expectations became …

This paper asks whether a textbook Phillips curve can explain the behavior of core inflation in the euro area. A … critical feature of the analysis is that we measure core inflation with the weighted median of industry inflation rates, which … is less volatile than the common measure of inflation excluding food and energy prices. We find that fluctuations in core …

This paper first outlines the key stylized facts about changes in inflation dynamics in recent years: 1) inflation … persistence has declined, 2) the Phillips curve has flattened, and 3) inflation has become less responsive to other shocks. These … changes in inflation dynamics are interpreted as resulting from an anchoring of inflation expectations as a result of better …

This paper examines the recent behavior of core inflation in the United States. We specify a simple Phillips curve … based on the assumptions that inflation expectations are fully anchored at the Federal Reserve's target, and that labor …-market slack is captured by the level of short-term unemployment. This equation explains inflation behavior since 2000, including …

A growing theoretical literature argues that aggregate price flexibility and the inflation-output tradeoff faced by … constant inflation-output tradeoff in favor of a slope that increases with microeconomic volatility. In contrast, there is no … evidence that the inflation-output tradeoff varies with aggregate volatility or the business cycle more generally. Furthermore …