A number of papers have solved for the optimal dynamic portfolio strategy when expected returns are time-varying and trading is costly, but only for agents with myopic utility. Non-myopic agents benefit from hedging against future shocks to the investment opportunity set even when transaction...

We document shifts in investor composition during quantitative tightening, which suggest that investors adjust their portfolios at different speeds. To understand its implications for bond valuation, we develop a general equilibrium model which highlights the dynamic interaction between...

This paper reviews recent developments in macro and finance on the relationship between financial risk and the real economy. We focus on three specific topics: the term structure of uncertainty, time variation - and specifically the long-term decline - in the variance risk premium, and time...

We survey the growing literature emphasizing the role that supply-and-demand forces play in shaping the term structure of interest rates. Our starting point is the Vayanos and Vila (2009, 2021) model of the term structure of default-free bond yields, which we present in both discrete and...

In over-the-counter (OTC) markets, customers search for counterparties. Little is known about this process, however, because existing data is comprised of transaction records, which are only informative about the end of a successful search. Leveraging data from the leading trading platform for...

We measure investors' short- and long-term stock-return expectations using both options and survey data. These expectations at different horizons reveal what investors think their own short-term expectations will be in the future, or forward return expectations. While contemporaneous short-term...

We theoretically characterize the behavior of machine learning asset pricing models. We prove that expected out-of-sample model performance--in terms of SDF Sharpe ratio and test asset pricing errors--is improving in model parameterization (or "complexity"). Our empirical findings verify the...

A lot! Profitability subsumes all of "quality" investing, explaining both the performance of the strategies that industry markets and the factors that academics employ. It also has striking power pricing "defensive equity" strategies that overweight low-beta or low-volatility stocks....

We propose a new methodology to build portfolios that hedge the economic and financial risks from climate change. Our quantity-based approach exploits information on how mutual fund managers trade in response to idiosyncratic changes in their climate risk beliefs. We exploit two types of...