variables may be fractionally integrated and the predictive relation may feature cointegration, we provide sup-Wald break tests … theory for the tests, showing that it coincides with standard testing procedures. As a consequence, existing critical values …

We dissect the comovement patterns of the macroeconomic data, identify a single shock that accounts for the bulk of the …

This paper develops a structural VAR model to measure how a shock to one country can affect the GDP of other countries …. It uses trade linkages to estimate the multiplier effects of a shock as it is transmitted through other countries' output …-trade matrix. For example, due to these output-multiplier effects, a shock to one country can have a large impact on countries that …

deterministic transition path: we study the equilibrium response to a single, small "MIT shock'' carefully. We then regard this …

restrictions on the responses of a subset of the endogenous variables to a particular structural shock (sign-restricted SVARs). To …