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An economic tracking portfolio is a portfolio of assets with returns that track an economic variable. Monthly returns on stocks and bonds are useful in forecasting post-war US output, consumption, labor income, inflation, stock returns, bond returns, and Treasury bill returns. These forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471746
We relate the predictability of future returns from past returns to the market's underreaction to information, focusing … momentum. Market risk, size and book-to- market effects do not explain the drifts. Security analysts' earnings forecasts also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473492
observable economic variables, and show that these levels of predictability are statistically significant, even after controlling … for data-snooping biases. We disaggregate the sources for predictability by using several asset groups, including industry …-sorted portfolios, and find that the sources of maximal predictability shift considerably across asset classes and sectors as the return …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473866
We survey the nascent literature on machine learning in the study of financial markets. We highlight the best examples of what this line of research has to offer and recommend promising directions for future research. This survey is designed for both financial economists interested in grasping...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322889
This paper studies the predictability of ultra high-frequency stock returns and durations to relevant price, volume and … predictability is rare and inconsistent, predictability in high frequency returns and durations is large, systematic and pervasive … determines the variation in predictability across different stock's own characteristics and market environments. Next, we compute …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362020
We evaluate the performance of different models for the covariance structure of stock returns, focusing on their use for optimal portfolio selection. Comparisons are based on forecasts of future covariances as well as the out-of-sample volatility of optimized portfolios from each model. A few...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471761
degree of predictability rises with the length of the horizon over which return is measured. This paper investigates the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475738
economic benefits of predicting individual stock volume are as large as those from stock return predictability …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015094879
Much recent work has documented evidence for predictability of asset returns. We show how such predictability can … predictability of stock returns greatly increases the optimal demand for stocks. The role of nominal bonds in long-term portfolios …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470152
We provide a model for why high beta assets are more prone to speculative overpricing than low beta ones. When investors disagree about the common factor of cash-flows, high beta assets are more sensitive to this macro-disagreement and experience a greater divergence-of-opinion about their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460112