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Enke, Benjamin - 2019

explain a set of behavioral anomalies identified across four distinct domains of decision-making: choice under risk, choice … risk and ambiguity, belief updating, and survey expectations. Our framework makes predictions that we test using exogenous …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480462

Uncertainty as Commitment

Nosal, Jaromir - 2013

Time-inconsistency of no-bailout policies can create incentives for banks to take excessive risks and generate endogenous crises when the government cannot commit. However, at the outbreak of financial problems, usually the government is uncertain about their nature, and hence it may delay...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459895

Rare Disasters and Risk Sharing with Heterogeneous Beliefs

Chen, Hui - 2010

between consumption losses in a disaster and the risk premium, a small amount of risk sharing can significantly attenuate the … effect that disaster risk has on the equity premium. We characterize the sensitivity of risk premium to wealth distribution … lead to significant variation in disaster risk premium. It also highlights the conditions under which disaster risk premium …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462617

The Influence Of Probability on Risky Choice : A parametric Examination

Lattimore, Pamela K. - 1992

The appeal of expected utility theory as a basis for a descriptive model of risky decision making has diminished is a …-range probability than is proposed by the expected utility model and risk-seeking behavior over "long-shot" odds is common …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474843

Policymakers' Uncertainty

Cieślak, Anna; Hansen, Stephen; McMahon, Michael; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

Uncertainty is a ubiquitous concern emphasized by policymakers. We study how uncertainty affects decision-making by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). We distinguish between the notion of Fed-managed uncertainty vis-a-vis uncertainty that emanates from within the economy and which the Fed...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436980

Knightian Uncertainty and Bayesian Entrepreneurship

Gans, Joshua - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2025

entrepreneurial priors, and Bayesian updating. The paper also explores connections to effectuation theory, finding that formal …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015326500

Should We Give Up After Solyndra? Optimal Technology R&D Portfolios under Uncertainty

Webster, Mort - 2015

Global climate change and other environmental challenges require the development of new energy technologies with lower emissions. In the near-term, R&D investments, either by government or the private sector, can bring down the costs of these lower emission technologies. However, the results of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457272

Vaccine Approvals and Mandates Under Uncertainty : Some Simple Analytics

Manski, Charles F. - 2014

Social interactions make communicable disease a core concern of public health policy. A prevalent problem is scarcity of empirical evidence that are informative about how interventions affect population behavior and illness. Randomized trials, which have been important to evaluation of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458235

Economic Analysis of Risk and Uncertainty induced by Health Shocks : A Review and Extension

Philipson, Tomas J. - 2013

We review and extend the economic analysis of risk and uncertainty as it relates to behavior mitigating health shocks … for risk-sharing in health by pooling the health care spending risk. In a sense, medical innovation involves a current …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459657

Uncertainty and Decision in Climate Change Economics

Heal, Geoffrey - 2013

probabilistic terms: we are facing deep uncertainty or ambiguity rather than risk in the classical sense, rendering the classical …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459732