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parameters of the best linear approximation is characterized via its support function, and limit theory is developed for the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479546
-sectional heterogeneity linked to (non-linear interactions of) return volatility, size, and value, (ii) structural changes in factor relevance … predicted by market volatility and valuation, and (iii) MKTRF and SMB as common factors and multiple uncommon factors across … characteristics-managed-market-timed clusters. BCM helps explain volatility- or size-related anomalies, exploit within-group tests …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322811
This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the forecastability of the real price of natural gas in the United States at the monthly frequency considering a universe of models that differ in their complexity and economic content. Our key finding is that considerable reductions in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015145107
-varying uncertainty (i.e., volatility) about future economic prospects drive asset prices. These two channels of economic risks can … account for the risk premia and asset price fluctuations. In addition, the model can empirically account for the cross …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465457
We characterize the joint dynamics of dividends, expected returns, stochastic volatility, and prices. In particular …, with a given dividend process, one of the processes of the expected return, the stock volatility, or the price …-dividend ratio fully determines the other two. For example, together with dividends, the stock volatility process fully determines …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465813
We establish an empirical link between the ex-ante uncertainty about macroeconomic fundamentals and the ex-post resolution of this uncertainty in financial markets. We measure macroeconomic uncertainty using prices of economic derivatives and relate this measure to changes in implied...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466398
-Gaussianity. Variance risk premiums on equity are very informative about risk aversion, whereas credit spreads and corporate bond volatility …We develop measures of time-varying risk aversion and economic uncertainty that are calculated from financial variables … dynamics among asset-specific cash flows, macroeconomic fundamentals and risk aversion feature heteroskedasticity and non …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479625
volatility of risk-free rates. We propose a model that is immune to these critiques and solves this puzzle by allowing for …Recent critiques have demonstrated that existing attempts to account for the unemployment volatility puzzle of search … preferences that generate time-varying risk over the cycle, and so account for observed asset pricing fluctuations, and for human …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480524
We provide semiparametric identification results for a broad class of learning models in which continuous outcomes depend on three types of unobservables: i) known heterogeneity, ii) initially unknown heterogeneity that may be revealed over time, and iii) transitory uncertainty. We consider a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486255
A central question in applied research is to estimate the effect of an exogenous intervention or shock on an outcome. The intervention can affect the outcome and controls on impact and over time. Moreover, there can be subsequent feedback between outcomes, controls and the intervention. Many of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056147