Value at Risk has become the standard measure of market risk employed by financial institutions for both internal and … regulatory purposes. Despite its conceptual simplicity, its measurement is a very challenging statistical problem and none of the … methodologies developed so far give satisfactory solutions. Interpreting Value at Risk as a quantile of future portfolio values …

The appeal of expected utility theory as a basis for a descriptive model of risky decision making has diminished is a …-range probability than is proposed by the expected utility model and risk-seeking behavior over "long-shot" odds is common …

We present a theory of choice among lotteries in which the decision maker's attention is drawn to (precisely defined … payoffs, our model provides a novel and unified account of many empirical phenomena, including frequent risk-seeking behavior … distinguish it from Prospect Theory, which we test. We also use the model to modify the standard asset pricing framework, and use …

manage systematic mortality risks, namely self-insurance and risk transfer to purchasers of the annuity products. We … demonstrate that self-insurance leads to high loadings, so that households offered a choice would favor the risk transfer scheme …

between consumption losses in a disaster and the risk premium, a small amount of risk sharing can significantly attenuate the … effect that disaster risk has on the equity premium. We characterize the sensitivity of risk premium to wealth distribution … lead to significant variation in disaster risk premium. It also highlights the conditions under which disaster risk premium …

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) has phased in the Hierarchical Condition Categories (HCC) risk … beneficiary's health status. However, it is debatable whether the CMS-HCC model has led to strategic evolutions of risk selection …. We examine the competing claims and analyze the risk selection behavior of MA plans in response to the CMS-HCC model. We …

We propose a measure for systemic risk: CoVaR, the value at risk (VaR) of the financial system conditional on … institutions being under distress. We define an institution's contribution to systemic risk as the difference between CoVaR … leverage, size, and maturity mismatch predict systemic risk contribution. We also provide out of sample forecasts of a …

national economy. It is based on the modern theory and practice of contingent claims analysis (CCA), which is successfully used … today at the level of individual banks by managers, investors, and regulators. The basic analytical tool is the risk … the effects of asset-liability mismatches within and across institutions. Risk-adjusted CCA balance sheets facilitate …

, analyze, and manage macroeconomic risk based on the theory and practice of modern contingent claims analysis (CCA). We … illustrate how to use the CCA approach to model and measure sectoral and national risk exposures, and analyze policies to offset … their potentially harmful effects. This new framework provides economic balance sheets for inter-linked sectors and a risk …