Showing 1 - 10 of 797
Risk and time are intertwined. The present is known while the future is inherently risky. Discounted expected utility … robust violations of discounted expected utility, inconsistent with both prospect theory probability weighting and models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462308
expected utility (GEU) to the diversification of agents who maximize the conventional expected utility (EU). Specifically, we … derive the patterns of diversification for agents who maximize a rank-dependent' expected utility, attaching more weight to … bad' than to good' outcomes, in contrast to the probability weights used in a conventional expected utility maximization …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472856
to estimate random utility models, as if they are data on actual choices. Stated choices may differ from actual ones …. This paper shows how to use elicited choice probabilities to estimate random utility models with random coefficients and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464196
We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to compare point forecasts of GDP growth and inflation with the subjective probability distributions held by forecasters. We find that SPF forecasters summarize their underlying distributions in different ways and that their summaries tend...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466693
This paper concerns the prescriptive function of decision analysis. I suppose that an agent must choose an action … can be represented as maximization of expected utility. However, our agent is not concerned the consistency of his …. Hence, I reason that prescriptions for decision making should respect actuality. That is, they should promote welfare …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464251
predictive distribution incorporates the parameter uncertainty, so that it is relevant for decision making under uncertainty in … the expected utility framework of microeconomics. The second application is to quantile regression. Our point here is to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473148
constructed-choice model for general decision making. The model departs from utility theory and prospect theory in its treatment … decisions. Neither expected utility theory nor prospect theory can explain these anomalies satisfactorily. We propose a … context on goals, resources, plans and decision rules. The paper concludes by suggesting some prescriptions for improving …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466218
expected utility paradigm in decision making substantially underestimates society's willingness to pay to reduce risk in small …Are individuals expected utility maximizers? This question represents much more than academic curiosity. In a normative … utility maximization paradigm literally the only game in town. In this study, we advance the literature by exploring CEO …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463196
A number of authors have suggested that investors derive utility from realizing gains and losses on assets that they … own. We present a model of this "realization utility," analyze its predictions, and show that it can shed light on a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464207
Using implicit expected utility theory, a money metric of utility derived from playing a lottery game is developed …. Output of the lottery sector can be defined as the difference in utility with and without the game. Using a kinked parametric …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464626