This paper uses U.S. loan-level credit register data and the 2018-2019 Trade War to test for the effects of international trade uncertainty on domestic credit supply. We exploit cross-sectional heterogeneity in banks' ex-ante exposure to trade uncertainty and find that an increase in trade...

We estimate a multi-country multi-sector New Keynesian model to quantify the drivers of domestic inflation during 2020-2023 in several countries, including the United States. The model matches observed inflation together with sector-level prices and wages. We further measure the relative...

We quantify the role of global production linkages in explaining spillovers of U.S. monetary policy shocks to stock returns across countries and sectors using a newly constructed dataset. Our estimation strategy is based on a standard open-economy production network model that delivers a...

We study the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Euro Area inflation and how it compares to the experiences of other countries, such as the United States, over the two-year period 2020-21. Our model-based calibration exercises deliver four key results: 1) Compositional effects - the switch from...

This paper builds on Baqaee and Farhi (2022) and di Giovanni et al. (2022) to quantify the contribution of fiscal policy on U.S. inflation over the Dec-2019 to June-2022 period. Model calibrations show that aggregate demand shocks explain roughly two-thirds of total model-based inflation, and...

The slow adoption of climate change policies stems from concerns about their economic impact. The EU has led global carbon pricing through its Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). This study examines the effect of ETS policy shocks on global stock market returns at the country-industry level using...

This paper evaluates the global welfare impact of observed levels of migration using a quantitative multi-sector model of the world economy calibrated to aggregate and firm-level data. Our framework features cross-country labor productivity differences, international trade, remittances, and a...

This paper investigates the role of individual firms in international business cycle comovement using data covering the universe of French firm-level value added, bilateral imports and exports, and cross-border ownership over the period 1993-2007. At the micro level, controlling for firm and...

This paper proposes a new mechanism by which country size and international trade affect macroeconomic volatility. We study a multi-country, multi-sector model with heterogeneous firms that are subject to idiosyncratic firm-specific shocks. When the distribution of firm sizes follows a power law...

Firm size follows Zipf's Law, a very fat-tailed distribution that implies a few large firms account for a disproportionate share of overall economic activity. This distribution of firm size is crucial for evaluating the welfare impact of economic policies such as barriers to entry or trade...