We build a quantitative model of trade with multistage manufacturing value chains, which features iceberg trade costs and technology differences across both goods and production stages. We estimate technology and trade costs via the simulated method of moments, matching bilateral shipments of...

This paper surveys macroeconomic and microeconomic perspectives on the role of international trade in structural transformation. We start by describing canonical frameworks that have been used to quantify how trade influences sectoral shares of employment and value added. We then pivot to survey...

Did trade integration suppress inflation in the United States? We say no, in contradiction to the conventional wisdom. Our answer leverages two basic facts about the rise of trade: offshoring accounts for a large share of it, and it was a long-lasting, phased-in shock. Incorporating these...

During the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, international shipping and logistics capacity was strained, limiting the quantity of imports. We investigate the impact of an import constraint on inflation, following an increase in domestic demand. Whether the binding import constraint raises...

We develop a multisector, open economy, New Keynesian framework to evaluate how potentially binding capacity constraints, and shocks to them, shape inflation. We show that binding constraints for domestic and foreign producers shift domestic and import price Phillips Curves up, similar to...