Identifying exogenous variation in monetary policy is crucial for investigating central bank policy transmission. Using newly-collected archival real-time data utilized by the Central Bank Council of the German Bundesbank, we identify unexpected changes in German monetary policy from 580 policy...

Existing high-frequency monetary policy shocks explain surprisingly little variation in stock prices and exchange rates around FOMC announcements. Further, both of these asset classes display heightened volatility relative to non-announcement times. We use a heteroskedasticity-based procedure to...

An efficient method is developed for pricing American options on combination stochastic volatility/jump-diffusion processes when jump risk and volatility risk are systematic and nondiversifiable, thereby nesting two major option pricing models. The parameters implicit in PHLX-traded Deutschemark...

This paper estimates simultaneously dynamic equations for the Deutsche Mark/Dollar exchange rate and the German wholesale price index, which emerge from a model in which German prices are sticky. This stickiness is due to price adjustment costs which take the form posited by Rotemberg(1982).The...

After a decade of generalized floating, it is clear that bilateral exchange rates exhibit more variability than the economic aggregates; relative prices, incomes, and money supplies, that generally comprise the fundamentals of theories of exchange rate determination. Dornbush's over-shooting...

This paper introduces a novel measure of consumer inflation expectations: We elicit and combine inflation forecasts across categories of personal consumption expenditure to form an aggregated measure of inflation expectations. Drawing on nearly 60,000 respondents, our data comprise the early...

We survey the growing literature emphasizing the role that supply-and-demand forces play in shaping the term structure of interest rates. Our starting point is the Vayanos and Vila (2009, 2021) model of the term structure of default-free bond yields, which we present in both discrete and...

In this essay, I analyze Salvador Allende's economic policies in Chile during the early 1970s. I argue that the explosion of inflation during his administration (above 1,500% on a six-month annualized measure) was predictable, and that the government's response to it, through massive and strict...

In this paper we revisit the Canadian experience with floating exchange rates since 1950. Canada was a pioneer in successfully adopting a floating exchange rate during the Bretton Woods pegged exchange rate regime. Since then, most advanced countries have followed the Canadian example