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Caballero, Ricardo J.; Simsek, Alp - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

We propose a model where monetary policy is the key determinant of aggregate asset prices (financial conditions). Spending decisions are made by a group of agents ("households") that respond to aggregate asset prices, but with noise, delays, and inertia. Asset pricing is determined by a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334351

Central Banks, Stock Markets, and the Real Economy

Caballero, Ricardo J.; Simsek, Alp - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

This article summarizes empirical research on the interaction between monetary policy and asset markets, and reviews our previous theoretical work that captures these interactions. We present a concise model in which monetary policy impacts the aggregate asset price, which in turn influences...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014468253

Sticky Discount Rates

Fukui, Masao; Gormsen, Niels; Huber, Kilian - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

We show that firms' nominal required returns to capital (i.e., their discount rates) are sticky with respect to expected inflation. Such nominally sticky discount rates imply that increases in expected inflation directly lower firms' real discount rates and thereby raise real investment. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512092

Interest Rate Skewness and Biased Beliefs

Bauer, Michael D.; Chernov, Mikhail - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

Conditional yield skewness is an important summary statistic of the state of the economy. It exhibits pronounced … curve. Most importantly, variation in yield skewness has substantial forecasting power for future bond excess returns, high … COVID pandemic did not disrupt these relations: historically high skewness correctly anticipated the run-up in long …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012585438

Currency Risk Premiums : A Multi-horizon Perspective

Chernov, Mikhail; Dahlquist, Magnus - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We review the literature on multi-horizon currency risk premiums. We show how the multi-horizon implications arise from the classic present-value relationship. We further show how these implications manifest themselves in the interaction between bond and currency risk premiums. This link is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322805

Intermediary Balance Sheets and the Treasury Yield Curve

Du, Wenxin; Hébert, Benjamin; Li, Wenhao - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

We document regime change in the U.S. Treasury market post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC): dealers switched from a net short to a net long position in the Treasury market. We first derive bounds on Treasury yields that account for dealer balance sheet costs, which we call the net short and net...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334440

How to Sell Public Debt in Uncertain Times

Cole, Harold L.; Neuhann, Daniel; Ordoñez, Guillermo - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2025

How should governments structure primary sovereign bond markets when investors face asymmetric uncertainty about default risk and total demand? Standard protocols either use uniform prices for all investors, or price discriminate based on bid prices ("pay as bid"). Uniform pricing encourages...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015361492

How the New Fed Municipal Bond Facility Capped Muni-Treasury Yield Spreads in the Covid-19 Recession

Bordo, Michael D.; Duca, John V. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

For over two centuries, the municipal bond market has been a source of systemic risk, which returned early in the Covid-19 downturn when borrowing from securities markets became costly for many private and public entities, and some found it difficult to borrow at all. Indeed, just before the Fed...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482653

Monetary Policy, Segmentation, and the Term Structure

Kekre, Rohan; Lenel, Moritz; Mainardi, Federico - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

We develop a segmented markets model which rationalizes the effects of monetary policy on the term structure of interest rates. When arbitrageurs' portfolio features positive duration, an unexpected rise in the short rate lowers their wealth and raises term premia. A calibration to the U.S....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014528364

Monetary Transmission Through Bank Securities Portfolios

Greenwald, Daniel; Krainer, John; Paul, Pascal - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

We study the transmission of monetary policy through bank securities portfolios using granular supervisory data on U.S. bank securities, hedging positions, and corporate credit. Banks that experienced larger losses on their securities during the 2022-2023 monetary tightening cycle extended less...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544727